LEED Market Trends

In 2007, LEED Registrations and Certifications doubled compared to the previous six years and in 2008 they doubled those of the previous seven years. LEED NC Registrations and Certifications continued their growth, but not at the doubling rate. The Core and Shell (LEED CS) system grew 13-fold compared with 2006, while LEED for Existing Buildings Operations & Maintenance (LEED EBOM) expanded nearly 20-fold.

Obviously, these growth rates are not sustainable. The current economic situation coupled with increased stringency in the LEED requirements will contribute to an expected slowdown. In the U.S. -- the focus of this report -- we expect a flattening of the growth rate or even a decrease in the new construction markets, both of which will reflect a slight decrease in general LEED NC and LEED CS projects and rapid growth in the Schools and Retail markets. We do expect, and indeed hope, that the growth in LEED EBOM continues, given the relative magnitude of the existing building stock compared with the size of new additions to floor space.

Going forward, we anticipate that LEED's growth will flatten relative to the market as it reaches the expected saturation point for the level of stringency the market is able to handle. Even though the growth rate flattens, in absolute terms we believe the amount of floor area being added to the system will continue to grow. Although not explicitly covered in this year's report, we anticipate LEED's growth overseas will continue to expand and may even exceed new floor area added in the U.S. as early as next year.